* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 10/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 35 36 36 35 28 21 16 16 15 V (KT) LAND 35 31 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 24 30 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 166 181 195 211 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 159 152 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 42 37 36 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 72 48 32 45 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 56 24 11 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 0 -3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 13 -8 0 -47 -66 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.1 28.0 28.7 29.3 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.7 111.1 111.5 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 23 17 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 17 CX,CY: -9/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -15. -24. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -14. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.2 109.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 10/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 10/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##