* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 63 63 59 58 57 56 55 58 56 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 63 63 59 58 57 56 55 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 58 56 52 48 46 44 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 4 2 7 6 5 8 5 7 0 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 0 2 -4 -1 0 -2 1 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 149 127 192 230 180 261 246 36 90 69 42 348 181 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 137 137 137 137 128 129 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 65 62 60 61 61 59 57 53 53 58 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 16 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 38 35 26 7 3 0 9 30 56 80 71 200 MB DIV 25 31 34 35 44 54 30 22 11 25 16 43 63 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1855 1895 1936 1939 1942 1967 1987 2030 2155 2252 2168 2053 1906 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.1 16.6 15.8 15.8 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.0 128.6 128.8 129.1 129.8 130.5 131.1 132.5 133.7 134.7 135.8 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 10 11 17 30 31 10 12 12 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.93 10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 46.3% 37.2% 26.8% 15.5% 28.7% 22.0% 7.9% Logistic: 17.3% 40.3% 25.7% 20.5% 2.9% 15.4% 2.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 29.1% 21.0% 15.8% 6.1% 14.7% 8.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 16.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##