* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 33 30 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 33 30 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 44 40 36 33 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 21 24 28 29 20 22 24 31 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 2 3 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 210 211 209 212 214 210 211 220 225 230 233 234 234 SST (C) 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.1 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 98 96 95 93 91 87 84 83 83 84 88 93 99 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 40 39 38 36 38 35 35 31 31 27 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 12 9 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -7 -3 -12 -26 -24 -18 -23 -33 -25 -26 -29 -42 200 MB DIV 15 12 -6 20 27 -3 -4 0 10 9 -4 13 -1 700-850 TADV 10 9 7 9 11 8 6 6 3 6 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1853 1818 1788 1771 1757 1675 1653 1641 1648 1666 1687 1721 1762 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.4 27.5 28.4 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.2 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.6 135.1 135.5 136.0 136.5 136.9 137.2 137.6 138.2 139.0 139.9 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -8. -15. -21. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 18. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -20. -25. -28. -30. -33. -38. -44. -49. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.1 134.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 458.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##