* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 51 44 38 33 28 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 51 44 38 33 28 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 57 51 46 41 35 30 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 15 17 21 27 33 32 21 22 22 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 251 213 201 204 209 216 218 210 209 212 219 227 226 SST (C) 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.2 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 106 101 98 96 95 91 87 83 80 83 86 91 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 45 45 42 40 39 36 39 36 35 29 28 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 17 17 16 17 16 14 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 11 -6 0 -18 -13 -8 -15 -25 12 7 -3 200 MB DIV 9 23 22 11 -8 14 2 -9 3 3 6 -3 0 700-850 TADV 13 12 10 8 7 9 7 6 4 5 7 3 1 LAND (KM) 1958 1902 1851 1822 1797 1776 1681 1647 1617 1620 1661 1701 1760 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.0 26.5 27.8 28.5 29.0 29.6 30.5 31.0 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 133.4 133.9 134.3 134.8 135.3 136.3 136.8 136.9 136.9 137.4 138.6 139.5 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -37. -38. -41. -44. -47. -52. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.3 133.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 583.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##