* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 51 43 37 29 24 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 60 51 43 37 29 24 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 60 52 46 41 34 29 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 12 16 16 22 30 33 29 25 24 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 0 -2 -1 -4 0 -1 0 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 264 250 222 210 210 209 218 210 214 208 222 222 229 SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.4 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 102 99 97 93 88 84 80 79 81 83 84 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 42 41 38 38 40 38 34 30 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 17 15 17 15 14 11 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 13 17 12 -4 -6 -30 -19 -20 -33 -22 -19 -33 200 MB DIV 1 8 17 21 18 25 16 4 5 12 10 7 5 700-850 TADV 16 11 13 11 10 7 9 9 5 0 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1993 1958 1914 1867 1825 1782 1741 1641 1587 1567 1584 1593 1595 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.2 25.9 27.2 28.2 29.1 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.9 133.4 133.9 134.4 134.9 135.9 136.4 136.6 136.6 136.8 137.4 137.9 138.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 8 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -19. -22. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -2. -0. 3. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -27. -33. -41. -46. -45. -48. -50. -53. -57. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.4 132.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 619.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##