* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 74 64 55 47 37 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 74 64 55 47 37 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 75 65 57 50 41 34 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 12 11 14 18 22 33 40 31 28 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 2 0 -2 -2 0 -2 4 4 7 9 SHEAR DIR 241 255 246 212 204 206 214 216 204 206 211 223 227 SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.0 21.9 22.2 22.3 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 111 106 102 98 96 91 87 80 78 81 81 80 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 42 40 36 41 39 37 30 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 20 18 17 16 15 14 14 12 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 16 19 12 1 -14 -19 -14 -20 -18 -3 -25 200 MB DIV 22 5 11 19 18 7 19 3 -1 9 0 10 3 700-850 TADV 17 19 15 11 14 9 9 8 2 4 3 5 -2 LAND (KM) 1982 1990 1965 1917 1874 1819 1774 1649 1565 1521 1548 1533 1493 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.5 21.3 22.3 23.2 24.8 26.4 27.8 29.2 30.2 30.8 31.3 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.3 132.9 133.5 134.0 134.5 135.4 136.2 136.4 136.4 136.6 137.4 137.6 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -27. -32. -38. -41. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. -12. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -30. -38. -48. -54. -58. -63. -67. -72. -77. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 132.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 733.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##