* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 84 73 65 57 47 40 36 34 31 29 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 84 73 65 57 47 40 36 34 31 29 23 DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 84 75 66 58 47 40 35 30 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 13 10 14 20 29 35 30 26 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 0 2 -2 -1 -1 1 0 3 9 7 SHEAR DIR 239 237 258 253 231 199 203 215 207 213 208 213 217 SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 111 105 100 96 92 87 82 80 81 83 84 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 52 48 46 44 45 41 39 41 43 40 37 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 20 19 17 16 15 17 17 16 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 8 16 13 23 22 -2 -1 -22 -13 -9 -14 -23 -19 200 MB DIV 43 28 4 7 13 29 16 12 4 -3 16 9 0 700-850 TADV 10 11 16 13 15 8 6 6 6 9 3 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1984 1983 1987 1947 1899 1810 1742 1695 1607 1593 1598 1587 1561 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.4 22.3 24.1 25.9 27.4 28.5 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.4 132.9 133.4 133.8 134.6 135.4 136.0 136.4 136.9 137.5 137.9 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -32. -39. -45. -49. -51. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -22. -30. -38. -48. -55. -59. -61. -64. -66. -72. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.8 131.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 797.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##