* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 91 82 75 62 53 47 41 36 33 27 20 V (KT) LAND 105 98 91 82 75 62 53 47 41 36 33 27 20 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 88 79 71 58 49 42 36 30 24 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 13 10 9 19 25 35 36 25 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 4 2 1 -3 -1 -5 -1 -1 8 4 SHEAR DIR 232 220 235 263 261 206 204 202 199 198 193 203 200 SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.4 23.6 23.3 22.9 22.4 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 118 113 107 99 95 90 84 81 80 82 84 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 52 52 47 46 45 43 40 37 41 41 39 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 20 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 5 12 19 17 21 15 4 -11 -23 -6 1 -7 -4 200 MB DIV 43 47 39 2 5 19 19 35 18 2 15 4 5 700-850 TADV 6 3 8 11 17 14 7 12 12 13 6 2 3 LAND (KM) 1983 1995 2011 2008 1985 1884 1803 1733 1617 1583 1583 1588 1593 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.2 21.0 22.9 24.8 26.4 27.8 28.9 29.7 30.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 131.9 132.5 133.0 133.4 134.3 135.2 135.7 136.0 136.4 137.0 137.6 138.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -15. -26. -36. -45. -52. -57. -60. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -23. -30. -43. -52. -58. -64. -69. -72. -78. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.0 131.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 877.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##