* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 120 115 105 84 67 55 46 38 28 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 115 122 120 115 105 84 67 55 46 38 28 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 119 114 104 94 75 61 51 43 36 29 23 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 4 9 10 7 16 23 35 40 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 2 0 1 -2 0 -3 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 18 356 275 202 210 249 213 204 206 204 200 199 206 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.3 23.7 23.3 22.8 22.3 21.8 21.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 126 121 116 106 99 95 89 84 78 75 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 52 50 44 43 40 37 41 41 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 21 20 18 18 18 17 17 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 15 15 27 31 21 1 -10 -17 -13 0 -12 200 MB DIV 36 33 40 47 36 10 9 6 30 11 15 19 6 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 4 6 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 3 LAND (KM) 1913 1935 1962 1962 1967 1937 1838 1758 1694 1594 1543 1519 1515 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.0 19.7 21.4 23.2 24.9 26.5 27.9 29.3 30.1 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.4 131.1 131.7 132.2 133.2 134.0 134.7 135.3 135.8 136.2 136.5 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -27. -39. -49. -58. -64. -67. -70. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 10. 4. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 5. -0. -10. -31. -48. -60. -69. -77. -87. -94.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.1 129.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 849.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 41 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##