* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 72 75 73 69 63 55 50 44 40 35 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 72 75 73 69 63 55 50 44 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 71 71 68 61 53 46 40 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 1 3 5 6 11 6 14 18 24 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 3 0 4 -2 0 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 26 12 93 262 209 200 241 195 202 208 208 213 233 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 25.8 24.8 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 136 134 129 121 110 103 99 96 92 89 87 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 61 62 56 47 44 38 36 34 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 21 20 20 18 16 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -8 -4 11 20 18 22 42 34 39 3 4 3 200 MB DIV 22 16 28 29 29 57 18 5 13 21 13 18 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 3 4 5 10 10 11 9 12 12 8 LAND (KM) 1787 1835 1888 1931 1978 2029 2026 1953 1886 1830 1786 1721 1735 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.8 20.3 21.9 23.6 25.2 26.6 27.4 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 128.0 129.0 130.0 130.9 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.1 135.9 136.5 137.0 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 10. 8. 4. -2. -10. -15. -21. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.1 126.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 353.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 28.0% 21.9% 18.6% 16.9% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.9% 30.5% 18.8% 13.5% 9.2% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.2% 20.0% 13.7% 10.8% 8.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##