* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 72 75 77 73 68 62 56 50 44 39 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 72 75 77 73 68 62 56 50 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 70 72 71 66 58 50 43 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 3 3 4 9 7 7 13 17 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -2 1 1 1 2 1 -2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 34 21 28 83 192 226 211 245 177 200 212 219 227 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.1 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 136 133 124 114 106 100 97 94 90 89 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 62 60 56 51 46 42 40 38 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 19 21 22 21 20 19 17 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -13 -6 2 14 27 31 37 36 26 19 -12 -7 200 MB DIV 40 29 31 38 34 54 39 0 9 13 13 3 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 3 3 7 13 9 9 10 12 6 LAND (KM) 1700 1773 1835 1876 1923 2001 2036 2011 1915 1840 1793 1761 1705 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.4 19.6 21.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 26.6 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.7 127.9 128.9 129.9 131.7 132.9 133.8 134.4 135.0 135.7 136.2 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. 13. 8. 2. -4. -10. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.8 125.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 323.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.3% 36.6% 24.9% 21.6% 18.8% 23.7% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 40.2% 27.7% 18.9% 13.2% 6.5% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.2% 27.3% 18.0% 13.7% 10.8% 10.1% 5.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##