* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 71 73 71 68 62 55 50 44 38 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 71 73 71 68 62 55 50 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 69 71 71 67 59 51 43 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 1 3 4 5 8 3 10 14 22 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -3 -2 1 3 0 5 -1 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 55 19 9 13 204 233 207 242 214 209 217 217 218 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 135 134 126 117 108 101 97 95 91 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 62 59 54 48 42 38 41 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 17 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -13 -6 8 28 23 32 38 30 27 5 2 200 MB DIV 51 47 28 26 34 27 45 8 8 8 19 11 3 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 0 3 7 8 10 11 8 10 6 LAND (KM) 1603 1679 1738 1784 1835 1931 1951 1971 1899 1834 1780 1736 1639 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.8 22.3 23.7 24.7 26.1 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.7 126.8 127.9 128.9 130.9 131.9 132.9 133.8 134.5 134.8 135.5 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 8 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. -3. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 16. 13. 8. -0. -5. -11. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 124.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 9.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 292.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.5% 45.6% 34.1% 26.2% 19.6% 26.4% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 31.8% 51.2% 41.8% 35.4% 26.9% 16.5% 4.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 4.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.4% 33.9% 25.8% 20.9% 15.6% 14.4% 7.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##