* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 48 51 55 60 64 63 63 58 55 50 44 V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 51 55 60 64 63 63 58 55 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 50 51 51 50 46 41 37 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 2 3 8 9 7 8 3 6 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 19 21 355 288 307 235 220 220 241 290 247 219 216 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.3 24.6 23.8 23.2 22.5 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 135 135 130 122 115 108 100 94 86 80 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 62 60 57 56 53 50 47 42 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 21 22 23 24 22 22 20 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -14 -14 -11 -9 10 26 18 25 27 22 13 -33 200 MB DIV 64 45 36 29 8 47 27 44 13 2 5 3 6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 0 2 6 6 9 8 8 4 3 LAND (KM) 1348 1428 1518 1604 1667 1769 1843 1872 1854 1763 1655 1579 1528 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.8 24.6 26.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.5 123.9 125.2 126.5 128.8 130.4 131.4 131.9 132.4 133.0 133.5 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 10 8 7 7 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 5 3 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 6. 7. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 24. 23. 23. 18. 15. 10. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 121.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 222.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 22.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 26.6% 16.7% 11.2% 6.7% 5.3% 4.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 16.5% 11.4% 3.8% 2.2% 8.2% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##