* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 58 65 72 78 77 74 69 62 58 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 58 65 72 78 77 74 69 62 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 56 60 63 62 56 50 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 5 3 2 5 2 1 2 2 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 1 4 7 7 7 5 4 SHEAR DIR 25 14 6 29 10 331 56 146 152 35 20 343 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 141 137 136 133 126 117 109 103 99 93 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 61 61 58 57 57 53 51 47 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 23 23 23 25 23 21 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -8 -9 -9 -4 3 14 30 20 35 44 32 13 200 MB DIV 57 66 72 65 52 23 44 5 28 18 1 -6 1 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 3 3 6 8 7 9 9 LAND (KM) 1260 1335 1406 1482 1570 1722 1836 1923 1984 2002 1932 1834 1720 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.4 21.6 23.0 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.9 121.2 122.7 124.1 126.8 129.0 130.8 132.2 133.0 133.4 133.7 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 12 10 9 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 16 11 8 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 12. 10. 8. 5. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 30. 37. 43. 42. 39. 34. 27. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 118.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 175.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 26.9% 20.0% 16.6% 14.6% 21.8% 19.5% 11.1% Logistic: 22.9% 67.7% 54.0% 44.0% 38.7% 41.9% 42.4% 17.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 18.5% 5.2% 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 12.8% 37.7% 26.4% 20.8% 17.9% 21.8% 20.8% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##