* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132017 08/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 62 69 69 68 65 62 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 62 69 69 68 65 62 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 43 48 51 51 48 45 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 6 7 5 5 2 1 5 5 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -1 2 1 3 2 4 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 25 25 1 14 14 357 359 283 296 195 219 197 197 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.6 25.8 24.9 24.3 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 145 141 136 135 130 121 111 104 100 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 61 59 57 54 53 48 44 41 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 18 18 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 -11 -14 -10 -9 -9 2 0 10 31 21 15 200 MB DIV 38 42 55 59 53 25 38 38 -1 -1 3 -5 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 2 3 4 3 8 5 4 6 LAND (KM) 1184 1260 1332 1386 1451 1602 1734 1833 1907 1928 1896 1826 1770 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.4 124.9 127.4 129.5 131.2 132.2 132.7 133.1 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 19 15 11 5 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 32. 39. 39. 38. 35. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 117.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 THIRTEEN 08/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 19.7% 15.4% 12.7% 0.0% 16.9% 15.6% 10.5% Logistic: 6.9% 34.6% 21.1% 17.0% 12.4% 26.3% 28.7% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 20.0% 12.5% 10.0% 4.2% 14.5% 14.8% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 THIRTEEN 08/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##