* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 19 16 16 14 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 75 75 86 93 84 81 66 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 133 127 124 121 118 114 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 63 62 59 53 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 77 74 62 56 33 38 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 36 22 14 4 -13 -8 -11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -2 2 -2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 491 561 640 733 834 1010 1190 1395 1627 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.9 20.7 20.5 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.4 116.7 118.0 119.2 121.5 123.8 126.2 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.5 114.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##