* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 39 39 40 37 31 25 22 19 17 17 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 39 39 40 37 31 25 22 19 17 17 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 31 29 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 16 14 19 20 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 3 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 52 65 76 69 68 79 71 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 149 144 140 132 126 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 68 66 64 64 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 18 18 17 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 75 80 80 78 65 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 47 51 35 25 23 11 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -2 0 -2 -6 -7 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 402 431 497 577 705 880 1082 1243 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.0 112.2 113.3 114.4 116.8 119.2 121.7 124.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 12 10 9 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 2. -4. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 109.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.1% 6.6% 4.7% 3.6% 6.8% 0.0% 5.4% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.2% 2.5% 0.1% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##