* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP112018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 45 48 54 59 62 63 62 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 45 48 54 59 62 63 62 62 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 14 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 259 270 277 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.9 29.5 28.6 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 175 174 163 154 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 62 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 123 124 95 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 7 0 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 114 229 259 228 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.8 109.6 111.5 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 21 14 6 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 21 CX,CY: -16/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 3. 9. 14. 17. 18. 17. 17. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.0 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ILEANA 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.1% 15.9% 10.2% 5.8% 14.4% 16.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.2% 5.4% 3.4% 1.9% 4.8% 5.4% 999.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 17.0% 11.0% 12.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ILEANA 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX