* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112017 08/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 28 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 28 29 27 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 77 85 94 96 116 123 117 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 138 135 132 129 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 59 55 53 46 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -5 -10 -14 -12 -3 -5 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 9 -11 -18 -2 -12 -3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 514 481 465 459 462 465 487 489 483 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.7 114.1 114.3 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -14. -21. -27. -31. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -14. -21. -28. -32. -35. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 110.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 175.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##