* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 20 24 25 27 28 30 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 20 24 25 27 28 30 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 17 17 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 163 163 158 140 148 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 145 147 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 66 64 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 24 39 46 55 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -23 -24 -12 4 22 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1734 1796 1858 1909 1960 2021 2035 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.1 12.7 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.1 124.5 124.8 125.1 125.7 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 18 25 29 34 35 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 123.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 2.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##