* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 23 28 29 31 33 35 37 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 22 23 28 29 31 33 35 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 16 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 176 160 155 144 136 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 144 145 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 69 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 18 27 38 51 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -19 -25 -11 3 15 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1669 1726 1784 1827 1871 1933 1988 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.3 123.7 124.0 124.2 124.6 124.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 19 24 29 35 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 122.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##