* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 28 29 30 31 33 34 36 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 28 29 30 31 33 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 18 20 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 -5 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 213 158 149 149 135 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 142 142 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 72 71 69 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 16 29 42 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -12 -5 4 4 14 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1617 1663 1710 1758 1806 1864 1839 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 11.9 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.4 122.7 123.0 123.2 123.4 123.6 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 19 24 32 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 122.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 2.3% 2.9% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##