* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 25 26 27 29 32 32 33 35 37 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 25 26 27 29 32 32 33 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 17 16 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 11 6 13 18 18 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 268 252 194 155 144 136 145 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 141 142 142 142 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 75 73 72 68 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -36 -14 -2 20 48 66 80 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 5 3 5 2 5 17 18 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1513 1566 1619 1681 1743 1820 1843 1844 1847 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.3 12.9 12.4 12.3 12.7 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 121.9 122.3 122.7 123.1 123.6 123.8 124.3 125.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 4 2 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 15 17 24 27 24 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 121.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 2.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##