* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 32 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 32 32 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 25 19 12 7 18 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 0 3 -7 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 292 293 289 283 169 153 157 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 140 140 140 140 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 69 70 72 71 68 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -35 -23 -8 8 36 54 61 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -3 5 14 1 5 19 -13 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 3 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1412 1448 1484 1532 1581 1672 1741 1769 1771 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.0 13.0 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.9 121.2 121.6 122.0 122.7 123.2 123.6 124.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 24 22 19 17 16 19 20 18 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 120.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 113.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 7.3% 7.1% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##