* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 28 29 29 30 32 33 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 28 29 29 30 32 33 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 19 18 19 20 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 27 27 19 7 10 13 5 8 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 2 0 -5 -4 -8 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 297 301 298 294 285 272 170 193 184 182 206 206 241 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 139 139 139 140 140 141 144 146 141 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 69 71 72 71 68 62 59 53 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -33 -28 -18 -2 20 33 48 47 46 37 44 35 200 MB DIV 5 12 10 15 26 9 18 7 20 16 23 10 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 1344 1378 1412 1455 1499 1588 1646 1689 1723 1807 1938 2115 2317 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.1 120.5 120.9 121.3 122.1 122.7 123.3 124.0 125.2 127.0 129.5 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 7 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 24 21 16 15 14 13 15 12 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##