* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 27 31 35 34 33 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 27 31 35 34 33 33 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 22 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 30 26 25 14 2 6 4 7 11 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 2 -2 -2 -3 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 301 298 301 294 297 302 17 150 232 223 238 229 234 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 140 140 139 140 140 142 146 147 143 139 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 68 69 72 74 72 65 61 55 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 8 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -37 -28 -24 -13 8 27 43 45 32 23 27 22 200 MB DIV 16 22 28 43 51 38 20 5 -7 -12 7 7 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 1313 1343 1372 1419 1467 1561 1629 1687 1744 1846 1983 2118 2229 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.6 120.0 120.4 120.8 121.7 122.2 122.8 123.6 125.1 127.2 129.2 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 25 26 19 16 16 18 18 12 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 119.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##