* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 32 36 37 37 38 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 32 36 37 37 38 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 23 22 22 24 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 29 30 30 28 20 8 11 15 9 11 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -1 -2 -6 -4 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 310 304 301 307 304 304 339 118 155 168 194 188 195 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 142 141 141 142 142 144 145 141 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 66 70 74 74 72 68 61 59 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -54 -46 -44 -41 -17 12 28 48 49 43 42 46 200 MB DIV 20 9 18 15 31 46 14 11 0 12 25 21 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1292 1329 1363 1422 1482 1594 1700 1791 1847 1839 1815 1931 2151 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 26 25 18 17 24 27 18 14 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 118.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##