* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 97 95 93 79 62 51 43 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 96 97 95 93 79 62 51 43 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 95 93 88 80 61 42 31 25 21 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 4 1 2 5 5 8 14 13 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 8 17 13 10 3 3 -4 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 338 348 52 312 124 189 172 228 239 253 233 239 222 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.9 25.5 24.7 22.1 20.5 22.0 20.9 20.2 21.2 21.3 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 134 120 111 84 67 83 71 63 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 66 67 61 57 50 43 36 32 30 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 42 41 41 41 37 32 27 25 21 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 44 39 41 22 14 -4 -7 3 2 0 -7 200 MB DIV 66 61 30 41 25 -3 10 27 18 14 17 0 -16 700-850 TADV 4 7 6 8 12 22 30 19 14 17 6 9 2 LAND (KM) 1067 1110 1148 1179 1226 1290 1373 1499 1551 1624 1704 1727 1796 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.0 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.3 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.3 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.6 119.8 121.0 122.2 124.7 126.9 129.1 131.5 133.7 135.5 137.0 138.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -14. -25. -32. -40. -46. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -2. -16. -33. -44. -52. -62. -69. -75. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.2 117.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 4.9% 2.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX