* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 24 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 13 17 24 32 26 11 10 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 -9 -5 3 7 6 9 7 SHEAR DIR 238 255 271 268 287 300 310 322 343 103 128 110 129 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 121 119 118 116 116 118 117 117 119 124 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 46 42 38 35 31 31 30 31 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 0 4 -2 1 13 19 35 28 29 25 22 200 MB DIV 10 18 14 -4 -14 -2 -13 -39 -44 -42 -21 -18 -50 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1998 1926 1855 1774 1692 1527 1394 1227 1067 960 916 816 693 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.2 16.9 16.5 16.0 15.4 14.9 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.0 137.6 138.3 139.0 140.5 141.8 143.5 145.2 146.5 147.3 148.8 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -25. -28. -29. -30. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 136.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.3% 6.5% 6.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##