* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 37 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 37 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 37 35 31 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 10 13 17 23 29 32 23 7 12 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 0 9 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 173 202 254 270 273 294 290 302 315 8 131 146 154 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 124 121 118 115 115 116 117 118 118 120 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 45 44 44 38 35 29 27 27 26 25 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 -5 0 4 -1 20 19 34 30 30 16 17 200 MB DIV 4 9 20 22 0 -18 -20 -13 -45 -48 -50 -31 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 -1 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2118 2032 1947 1862 1778 1619 1460 1309 1182 1059 932 841 798 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.5 17.3 16.7 16.2 15.8 15.3 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.1 136.8 137.5 138.2 139.6 141.1 142.6 144.0 145.4 146.9 148.2 149.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -13. -12. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -17. -24. -32. -35. -36. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 135.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 302.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 12.5% 9.4% 6.7% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.3% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##