* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 45 42 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 45 42 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 40 36 32 28 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 9 16 28 31 33 23 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 -7 -1 7 4 SHEAR DIR 338 301 275 239 166 232 266 286 293 295 289 258 222 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 134 132 126 120 117 115 115 115 116 117 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 50 48 45 40 37 34 30 25 23 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 14 15 12 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 5 4 8 6 8 12 10 16 15 15 19 200 MB DIV -15 10 24 23 17 -7 -2 -7 4 0 -23 -35 -33 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 0 0 2 4 3 2 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2221 2295 2372 2281 2183 2023 1855 1695 1542 1376 1217 1077 970 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.1 16.9 16.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.9 133.0 133.9 134.8 136.2 137.6 139.0 140.4 142.0 143.6 145.1 146.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 4 4 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -10. -17. -26. -34. -39. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 130.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 310.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 19.1% 15.8% 12.9% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.5% 5.9% 4.5% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##