* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 47 45 39 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 47 45 39 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 41 37 33 29 25 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 6 10 13 18 26 32 31 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 0 8 SHEAR DIR 317 322 299 282 229 201 262 280 293 302 310 308 289 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 137 134 131 126 122 119 117 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 50 49 45 44 40 38 34 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 14 14 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 13 5 6 6 1 5 -4 -6 -10 -8 4 200 MB DIV -19 -11 10 26 34 18 10 0 -1 -18 -35 -51 -56 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -3 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2131 2217 2307 2375 2262 2104 1954 1815 1674 1555 1416 1304 1185 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.8 132.0 133.0 134.1 135.6 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.4 141.8 143.0 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 2 3 4 5 4 4 2 1 5 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -5. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -13. -20. -29. -36. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 129.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.56 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 299.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 25.1% 18.7% 14.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 16.4% 8.7% 2.9% 1.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 13.9% 9.2% 5.9% 5.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##