* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 38 35 31 27 24 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 6 10 14 16 26 32 35 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 -8 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 235 264 277 286 288 253 206 248 277 286 298 301 303 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 137 134 128 124 119 116 114 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 56 54 50 46 41 38 35 33 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 23 22 23 9 12 8 16 1 12 8 14 200 MB DIV 25 4 -16 -2 25 49 2 -11 -9 -13 -47 -24 -53 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 -3 -6 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1911 2011 2106 2197 2292 2290 2112 1963 1829 1669 1483 1296 1129 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.4 129.6 130.8 132.0 133.8 135.4 136.7 137.8 139.2 140.9 142.7 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 7 6 8 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 5 1 2 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -20. -27. -34. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 127.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 286.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 19.7% 14.9% 11.8% 11.0% 15.4% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.8% 6.0% 4.2% 3.8% 5.5% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##