* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 47 53 54 53 54 52 49 49 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 47 53 54 53 54 52 49 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 41 43 43 41 40 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 10 7 8 15 13 7 4 3 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 93 92 99 115 141 213 220 220 202 340 302 282 296 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 146 145 140 138 137 134 133 132 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 74 65 62 56 53 50 48 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 35 40 44 34 71 69 82 70 62 51 49 200 MB DIV 35 32 30 35 30 27 19 29 22 -7 -8 -7 2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 6 1 -1 -4 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1087 1111 1144 1198 1260 1372 1521 1732 1937 2143 2328 2161 1979 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.7 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.4 118.5 120.7 123.2 125.8 128.3 130.7 133.0 134.9 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 23 27 23 15 10 12 4 14 2 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 19. 18. 19. 17. 14. 14. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 114.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 20.5% 14.8% 11.4% 11.2% 15.6% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 10.9% 3.9% 2.7% 1.5% 3.7% 5.8% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.8% 6.3% 4.7% 4.3% 6.5% 6.7% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##