* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 55 62 67 67 67 64 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 55 62 67 67 67 64 61 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 49 55 58 58 56 52 50 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 7 9 11 8 13 9 4 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -1 -3 1 1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 127 114 96 96 115 160 180 209 224 293 4 321 281 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.9 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 140 142 142 138 136 131 129 133 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 77 77 73 67 63 55 49 49 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 19 20 22 22 24 23 22 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 4 14 26 44 41 48 52 77 87 97 83 71 77 200 MB DIV 15 36 31 47 56 40 48 13 27 18 -9 -7 -12 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -4 0 3 3 6 1 -3 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 970 1009 1029 1049 1080 1190 1305 1483 1712 1934 2151 2316 2025 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.0 15.3 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.1 113.9 115.0 116.0 118.4 120.6 123.3 126.2 128.8 130.9 133.4 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 14 13 17 25 23 8 8 7 9 9 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 27. 27. 27. 24. 21. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 112.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 21.8% 17.8% 14.8% 13.2% 18.1% 16.8% 10.2% Logistic: 3.3% 10.2% 4.2% 2.8% 1.1% 7.4% 6.7% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 13.0% 7.8% 6.0% 4.8% 8.8% 8.1% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##