* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 51 63 62 64 63 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 51 63 62 64 63 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 47 51 54 53 50 46 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 7 5 8 8 14 11 3 6 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 1 0 1 5 0 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 341 126 146 162 156 165 211 212 215 269 344 340 336 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.5 27.1 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 139 140 143 137 134 128 130 136 137 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 75 74 67 60 56 51 47 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 20 19 24 22 23 24 24 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 16 28 34 54 62 84 102 103 108 85 76 200 MB DIV 5 7 21 22 37 55 26 67 20 35 -24 -12 -9 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 0 1 6 2 -1 -5 -4 0 LAND (KM) 917 991 1024 1034 1054 1152 1282 1429 1631 1851 2143 2365 2132 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 16.7 16.2 15.0 14.7 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.6 113.5 114.5 115.4 117.7 120.4 122.9 125.4 127.9 130.5 133.0 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 21 14 14 19 28 9 5 4 1 1 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 11. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 23. 22. 24. 23. 21. 18. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 111.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.3% 17.5% 14.3% 13.2% 19.0% 17.1% 10.2% Logistic: 5.0% 16.7% 7.0% 5.0% 2.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 0.1% Consensus: 5.2% 15.2% 8.6% 6.6% 5.2% 8.6% 7.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##