* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 47 54 57 52 50 43 40 34 32 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 47 54 57 52 50 43 40 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 46 47 44 40 34 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 3 2 6 13 18 11 8 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 5 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 320 296 281 251 255 151 182 202 231 236 235 255 301 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 140 137 137 141 136 133 128 126 128 133 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 76 76 76 70 62 56 48 44 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 16 19 20 17 17 14 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 15 20 28 37 51 68 88 71 75 66 57 200 MB DIV 23 17 23 22 37 60 51 7 4 -5 -9 -11 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -2 3 12 17 6 1 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 830 891 956 975 997 1071 1196 1367 1584 1774 1942 2151 2365 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 16.8 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.5 112.4 113.5 114.5 116.8 119.5 122.3 125.0 127.3 128.9 130.9 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 13 13 12 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 20 13 14 27 12 3 3 1 9 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 5. 5. 1. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 14. 17. 12. 10. 3. -0. -6. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 110.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 22.8% 19.2% 16.3% 14.2% 21.3% 18.4% 10.5% Logistic: 3.8% 11.5% 6.0% 5.0% 3.2% 7.0% 5.6% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 13.0% 8.7% 7.2% 5.8% 9.8% 8.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##