* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992019 07/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 49 56 60 61 64 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 49 56 60 61 64 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 39 41 45 50 56 62 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 3 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 0 -2 0 -1 -5 -6 -3 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 335 322 328 317 314 255 12 41 295 298 288 265 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 151 153 155 154 149 147 145 140 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 66 64 65 64 59 57 55 55 54 53 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -15 -7 2 0 14 14 11 20 28 14 -1 0 200 MB DIV 3 0 10 41 50 52 57 38 33 16 12 19 20 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -6 -4 -4 -8 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1878 1967 2075 2182 2308 2531 2325 2049 1790 1508 1261 1016 800 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.6 126.1 127.5 129.0 131.9 134.6 137.1 139.5 142.0 144.2 146.4 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 13 12 11 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 25 16 14 19 22 16 15 16 19 8 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 30. 31. 34. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 123.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 25.1% 23.9% 18.3% 0.0% 22.6% 25.2% 42.4% Logistic: 15.0% 61.1% 35.6% 27.2% 4.9% 18.2% 6.9% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 19.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 3.4% 1.9% 0.1% Consensus: 9.4% 35.3% 20.4% 15.3% 1.7% 14.7% 11.4% 20.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##