* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 50 48 46 41 34 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 50 48 46 41 34 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 50 47 43 37 30 23 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 13 9 4 3 8 9 15 13 18 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 0 0 0 9 2 3 4 9 12 SHEAR DIR 55 47 54 46 57 225 254 236 255 245 259 238 234 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.4 25.7 23.7 22.0 22.6 22.8 21.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 132 131 126 117 120 99 81 87 90 79 91 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 59 61 61 59 53 48 42 39 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 22 22 20 21 18 16 14 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 49 38 29 14 16 19 37 37 48 24 -2 200 MB DIV 32 25 30 3 -3 4 18 9 -22 -28 -33 -13 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 -3 -1 3 2 12 0 -2 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 985 1022 1066 1091 1125 1214 1320 1389 1476 1588 1695 1798 1888 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.9 117.8 118.8 119.7 121.4 123.2 125.1 127.0 128.8 130.4 132.4 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.0 115.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX