* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 58 52 45 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 63 58 52 45 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 63 57 51 46 37 30 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 9 7 10 9 8 6 7 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 2 0 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 224 248 217 243 251 268 255 248 232 225 166 182 188 SST (C) 25.4 24.6 24.0 23.5 23.1 22.2 21.2 20.7 20.5 20.4 20.3 19.9 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 108 102 97 93 83 72 67 64 62 61 59 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 58 55 49 49 47 46 41 39 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 21 20 18 16 14 11 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 30 45 59 56 37 17 15 -1 -15 -39 -37 200 MB DIV -2 3 -5 -20 -23 -20 0 -4 -1 -3 16 -3 15 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -5 -4 -1 -2 1 2 1 2 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 829 799 780 776 765 729 713 732 770 771 797 772 740 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.7 26.8 27.6 28.0 28.8 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.0 118.4 118.9 119.4 120.4 121.2 122.0 122.8 123.4 123.9 124.8 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -21. -26. -31. -33. -33. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -25. -36. -44. -50. -55. -58. -62. -66. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.1 117.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 473.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##