* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 77 74 71 61 52 43 33 26 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 80 80 77 74 71 61 52 43 33 26 20 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 71 66 55 46 39 32 27 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 2 0 2 3 3 6 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 65 91 180 40 123 162 179 150 140 145 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.4 22.8 22.7 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 115 112 106 103 100 97 95 89 87 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 72 69 66 67 61 60 51 45 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 31 31 26 29 8 -4 -11 8 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 13 -12 -12 16 1 -9 -11 -12 -33 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 -3 0 1 4 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 366 421 418 411 470 534 603 693 806 908 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.6 109.4 110.4 111.3 113.1 114.2 115.6 117.3 118.8 119.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 7 6 8 8 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -32. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -6. -9. -19. -28. -37. -47. -54. -60. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.2 107.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 256.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##