* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 79 80 80 76 67 59 49 39 31 24 19 V (KT) LAND 65 73 79 80 80 76 67 59 49 39 31 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 77 75 64 54 45 37 31 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 8 8 1 4 5 7 9 11 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -1 1 3 1 0 3 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 155 55 45 49 175 153 174 160 154 158 152 163 SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.6 24.9 23.9 23.8 23.3 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 133 126 119 112 101 100 94 92 90 91 99 103 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 71 69 68 61 60 57 53 46 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 14 14 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 16 28 31 23 13 17 1 -11 -10 0 21 200 MB DIV 55 39 23 33 24 -34 -6 -8 -14 2 -31 -16 -32 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -5 -4 -4 -6 0 0 3 4 8 5 LAND (KM) 252 272 290 336 387 428 482 576 665 756 884 1065 1245 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.9 106.9 107.9 108.8 110.7 112.6 114.2 115.7 117.3 119.0 120.7 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 15. 15. 11. 2. -6. -16. -26. -34. -41. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.5 104.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 6.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 166.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 2.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.4% 40.4% 30.9% 23.8% 20.1% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 50.4% 35.8% 19.4% 11.2% 4.7% 8.4% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.5% 6.9% 3.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 36.1% 27.7% 17.8% 12.4% 8.4% 9.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##