* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 70 68 62 57 48 41 33 27 23 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 68 70 68 62 57 48 41 33 27 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 65 64 59 51 44 38 32 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 7 12 7 3 1 2 6 10 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 3 2 3 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 27 69 121 87 68 64 88 222 124 144 154 151 150 SST (C) 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.6 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.1 22.7 22.9 23.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 133 127 119 106 100 96 93 88 90 93 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 72 71 70 63 64 58 57 47 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 22 30 31 23 12 21 0 -8 -14 -3 15 200 MB DIV 52 47 39 31 32 -18 -9 -5 -17 -5 -3 -26 -21 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 0 -5 -5 -6 -2 0 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 236 245 265 279 326 454 436 494 606 697 830 955 1052 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.9 106.9 107.8 109.7 111.4 113.2 115.1 116.8 118.4 119.7 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 13. 7. 2. -7. -14. -22. -28. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 103.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 5.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 2.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.6% 41.2% 24.8% 20.5% 18.3% 20.2% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 47.2% 48.3% 25.3% 16.7% 8.7% 13.4% 1.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.9% 20.0% 5.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.6% 36.5% 18.4% 13.6% 9.6% 11.3% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##