* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/19/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 50 56 63 68 74 82 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 50 56 63 68 74 82 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 39 40 42 48 56 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 6 6 10 13 6 8 16 19 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 3 0 -4 -6 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 73 56 60 109 162 172 195 185 45 62 52 48 8 SST (C) 29.2 29.8 29.6 28.7 28.0 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 165 162 151 143 151 149 152 156 145 147 148 167 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 71 68 64 60 61 62 65 65 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 20 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 15 2 -7 -2 1 11 -1 -10 -12 -8 30 17 7 200 MB DIV 30 46 42 49 42 66 50 25 -5 42 80 122 162 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 302 310 337 354 371 454 579 753 935 1048 1041 866 541 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.2 14.8 13.0 11.5 10.9 11.8 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 104.1 105.3 106.3 107.1 108.3 109.3 110.2 110.7 110.4 109.3 107.8 106.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 11 10 7 5 7 9 9 7 7 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 38 23 21 19 19 21 18 22 46 27 12 11 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 249 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 33. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 11. 14. 20. 26. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 25. 31. 38. 43. 49. 57. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 102.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/19/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 31.6% 20.0% 10.7% 8.9% 24.0% 33.4% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 1.5% 18.9% 14.0% 3.6% 3.0% 14.5% 18.2% 6.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 16.0% 45.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/19/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX