* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/17/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 41 51 59 66 74 75 78 81 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 41 51 59 66 74 75 78 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 47 52 59 65 70 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 18 15 13 11 6 8 6 6 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 1 1 3 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 4 SHEAR DIR 50 53 63 72 69 50 41 79 119 126 228 298 44 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.7 29.8 30.2 29.6 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 143 143 145 151 164 168 161 156 156 151 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 6 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 81 79 78 77 81 81 80 80 71 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 13 12 14 16 16 17 14 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 82 81 77 76 65 29 13 18 6 -6 -32 -14 0 200 MB DIV 92 121 138 126 118 127 91 82 94 64 51 47 38 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 4 0 -4 -9 -5 -6 -3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 175 186 198 213 238 259 181 154 155 162 207 241 268 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 6 7 10 12 11 9 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 7 11 19 22 28 21 23 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 9. 6. 7. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 16. 26. 34. 41. 49. 50. 53. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 92.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/17/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/17/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING