* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 06/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 32 39 44 49 49 49 50 49 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 26 32 39 44 49 49 49 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 13 12 13 15 17 18 22 23 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 348 351 1 21 24 27 47 81 88 112 125 126 109 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 154 150 144 139 142 147 150 148 147 151 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 75 74 74 71 72 69 69 69 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -19 -31 -30 -30 -9 -13 -13 -10 -16 0 13 33 200 MB DIV 26 36 32 34 39 66 72 65 45 38 23 33 37 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 3 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 617 607 584 547 519 490 496 546 625 736 850 977 1147 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.2 14.9 14.3 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.7 104.5 105.1 105.5 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.6 108.6 110.1 111.6 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 6 4 2 3 5 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 51 43 35 23 18 23 30 33 39 34 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 29. 29. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 102.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING