* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 22 23 24 27 28 31 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 22 23 24 27 28 31 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 13 11 12 14 8 6 12 9 3 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 0 0 -1 0 3 0 -2 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 243 248 254 255 261 288 260 232 224 234 141 317 266 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.5 29.0 28.5 27.6 28.0 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 151 155 150 140 144 127 130 133 137 117 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 63 66 70 75 80 83 81 80 71 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -44 -45 -42 -39 -25 0 15 29 18 23 20 11 200 MB DIV 30 19 16 26 37 19 74 118 158 135 140 83 20 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 3 -1 -2 3 0 LAND (KM) 851 913 985 1048 1114 1218 1294 1338 1386 1433 1488 1514 1568 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 11 11 11 9 7 4 4 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 9 24 32 35 15 12 7 5 6 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. -22. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -7. -6. -3. -2. 1. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 14.5% 13.9% 9.0% 5.5% 12.7% 14.9% 11.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 5.4% 4.8% 3.0% 1.9% 4.3% 5.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX