* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 64 68 68 64 61 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 64 68 68 64 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 47 45 40 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 10 11 14 11 13 8 5 2 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 7 4 5 4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 49 52 56 45 54 60 67 64 52 53 117 295 351 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.1 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 154 153 152 155 152 135 126 122 117 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 73 71 65 62 59 52 45 40 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 17 20 23 23 23 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 52 54 51 62 74 88 58 90 92 96 79 200 MB DIV 67 71 73 67 61 66 48 61 13 -24 -30 -21 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 911 942 983 1038 1088 1107 1047 917 912 1057 1246 1394 1479 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.8 16.9 18.8 20.4 21.0 20.9 20.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.5 114.6 115.6 116.4 117.4 117.8 118.4 119.8 122.3 124.7 126.5 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 8 10 11 12 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 20 16 15 13 6 12 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 9. 16. 24. 29. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 12. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 39. 43. 43. 39. 36. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 112.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 14.9% 5.8% 3.0% 1.3% 9.7% 20.2% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 11.7% 8.1% 1.0% 0.4% 8.3% 12.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX