* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 06/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 46 52 52 54 54 52 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 46 52 40 33 37 35 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 33 30 34 33 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 17 14 17 18 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 3 2 5 3 8 8 7 4 SHEAR DIR 99 89 75 70 69 58 63 40 67 87 96 98 101 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 28.8 27.3 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 151 152 156 161 155 140 137 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 81 80 81 77 76 71 65 58 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 35 32 30 42 71 90 91 97 105 67 50 55 200 MB DIV 80 64 66 61 71 86 77 58 38 20 15 -8 -10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 208 173 152 131 121 95 22 -21 0 100 275 571 789 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.1 16.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.6 96.2 97.4 99.6 102.5 106.1 109.6 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 3 5 9 12 16 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 18 18 16 10 37 5 18 15 18 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 22. 22. 24. 24. 22. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 95.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 06/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -18.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 06/11/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING