* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  ROSA        EP202018  09/27/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   105   114   118   121   120   113   102    94    84    69    56    39   DIS
V (KT) LAND      105   114   118   121   120   113   102    94    84    69    56    39   DIS
V (KT) LGEM      105   113   116   115   112   103    93    84    72    56    43    31    24
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     4     3     4     6     3     7     7    12    25    26    35    47
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -3     0    -3    -7    -5    -6    -3    -1     5     0     4     6
SHEAR DIR         67   105    25    23    45    67   181   187   216   220   234   224   224
SST (C)         28.6  28.5  28.4  28.3  28.2  27.8  27.3  26.5  25.1  24.2  23.6  21.7  28.9
POT. INT. (KT)   150   148   147   145   145   140   136   128   114   105    99    79   154
200 MB T (C)   -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -49.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.6   0.7   0.8   0.9   1.0   0.8   0.7   1.1   1.1   1.5   1.3   1.2   0.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     5     4     4     3     2     1     1     1     2     5
700-500 MB RH     72    69    67    66    65    61    60    56    53    47    48    49    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    29    30    29    32    33    33    33    36    35    31    28    22     8
850 MB ENV VOR    60    52    53    54    57    58    45    42    57    42    32    38    54
200 MB DIV        39    54    40     9     8    41    46    14    23    19    53    69    68
700-850 TADV       0     0    -3    -1    -1    -1     1     4     0    11     7    -5     0
LAND (KM)        872   918   967   990  1003   955   877   779   635   439   222    74    49
LAT (DEG N)     17.0  17.1  17.1  17.3  17.5  18.6  19.8  21.3  23.1  24.9  26.5  28.3  30.3
LONG(DEG W)    115.5 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.0 118.7 118.9 118.9 118.7 118.0 116.7 115.5 114.2
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     6     6     6     6     7     8     9    10    10    11    12
HEAT CONTENT      14    14    13    10     8     6     1     0     0     0     0     0    24

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  75            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  443  (MEAN=584)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   4.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -6. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -46.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.   0.   0.   0.   2.   4.   5.   7.   5.   3.  -1.  -8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            8.  11.  11.  10.   7.   3.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -7.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   3.   4.   4.   4.   8.   9.   4.   0.  -9. -27.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.   0.   1.   2.   3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           9.  13.  16.  15.   8.  -3. -11. -21. -36. -49. -66. -91.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):  105. LAT, LON:   17.0   115.5

      ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA       09/27/18  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   41.9     40.5  to  149.3        0.01           0.1
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   30.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.79           7.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :    5.1     19.6  to    1.4        0.80           6.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   11.8      1.8  to  106.7        0.10           0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   30.0    -33.0  to  156.2        0.33           2.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :    4.9     37.8  to    2.1        0.92           5.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :  105.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.36           1.9
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  445.2    721.6  to  -82.5        0.34          -1.6
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     62.3  to    0.0        1.00           0.6
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.1      2.2  to   -1.9        0.57           0.5
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  34% is   5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  30% is   2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  23% is   3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    33.5%   30.3%   22.7%   19.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    65.0%   50.4%   37.6%   37.5%   33.9%   20.6%    3.9%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    16.6%    1.8%    0.2%    0.2%    0.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    38.4%   27.5%   20.2%   19.0%   11.4%    6.9%    1.3%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    18.0%   15.0%    6.0%    4.0%    1.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA       09/27/18  18 UTC         ##
   ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS  ##
   ## AHI=  1   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

                          CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX